Market UpdatesMortgage Tips & Strategies March 15, 2021

How Upset Should You Be about 3% Mortgage Rates?

How Upset Should You Be about 3% Mortgage Rates? | MyKCM

Last Thursday, Freddie Mac announced that their 30-year fixed mortgage rate was over 3% (3.02%) for the first time since last July. That news dominated real estate headlines that day and the next. Articles talked about the “negative impact” it may have on the housing market. However, we should realize two things:

1. The bump-up in rate should not have surprised anyone. Many had already projected that rates would rise slightly as we proceeded through the year.

2. Freddie Mac’s comments about the rate increase were not alarming:

“The rise in mortgage rates over the next couple of months is likely to be more muted in comparison to the last few weeks, and we expect a strong spring sales season.”

A “muted” rise in rates will not sink the real estate market, and most experts agree that it will be a strong spring sales season.”

What does this mean for you?

Obviously, any buyer would rather mortgage rates not rise at all, as any upward movement increases their monthly mortgage payment. However, let’s put a 3.02% rate into perspective. Here are the Freddie Mac annual mortgage rates for the last five years:

  • 2016: 3.65%
  • 2017: 3.99%
  • 2018: 4.54%
  • 2019: 3.94%
  • 2020: 3.11%

Though 3.02% is not as great as the sub-3% rates we saw over the previous seven weeks, it’s still very close to the all-time low (2.66% in December 2020).

And, if we expand our look at mortgage rates to consider the last 50 years, we can see that today’s rate is truly outstanding. Here are the rates over the last five decades:

  • 1970s: 8.86%
  • 1980s: 12.7%
  • 1990s: 8.12%
  • 2000s: 6.29%
  • 2010s: 4.09%

Being upset that you missed the “best mortgage rate ever” is understandable. However, don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. Buying now still makes more sense than waiting, especially if rates continue to bump up this year.

Bottom Line

It’s true that you may not get the same rate you would have five weeks ago. However, you will get a better rate than what was possible at almost any other point in history. Let’s connect today so you can lock in a great rate while they stay this low.

Buyer Tips & StrategyMarket TrendsReal Estate Market Stats and InformationSeller Tips & Strategy March 15, 2021

6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time

6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | MyKCM

Last March, many involved in the residential housing industry feared the market would be crushed under the pressure of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. Instead, real estate had one of its best years ever. Home sales and prices were both up substantially over the year before. 2020 was so strong that many now fear the market’s exuberance mirrors that of the last housing boom and, as a result, we’re now headed for another crash.

However, there are many reasons this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are six visuals to show the dramatic differences.

1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.

During the housing bubble, it was difficult not to get a mortgage. Today, it’s tough to qualify. Recently, the Urban Institute released their latest Housing Credit Availability Index (HCAI) which “measures the percentage of owner-occupied home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.

The index shows that lenders were comfortable taking on high levels of risk during the housing boom of 2004-2006. It also reveals that today, the HCAI is under 5 percent, which is the lowest it’s been since the introduction of the index. The report explains:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | MyKCMThis is nothing like the last time.

2. Prices aren’t soaring out of control.

Below is a graph showing annual home price appreciation over the past four years compared to the four years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation was quite strong last year, it’s nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | MyKCMThere’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.8%. So, while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating out of control as it did in the early 2000s.

This is nothing like the last time.

3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory, which is causing an acceleration in home values.6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | MyKCMThis is nothing like the last time.

4. New construction isn’t making up the difference in inventory needed.

Some may think new construction is filling the void. However, if we compare today to right before the housing crash, we can see that an overabundance of newly built homes was a major challenge then, but isn’t now.6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | MyKCMThis is nothing like the last time.

5. Houses aren’t becoming too expensive to buy.

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fifteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased, and the mortgage rate is about 3%. That means the average homeowner pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a chart showing that difference:6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | MyKCMAs Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First Americanexplains:

“Lower mortgage interest rates and rising incomes correspond with higher house prices as home buyers can afford to borrow and buy more. If housing is appropriately valued, house-buying power should equal or outpace the median sale price of a home. Looking back at the bubble years, house prices exceeded house-buying power in 2006, but today house-buying power is nearly twice as high as the median sale price nationally.”

This is nothing like the last time.

6. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as personal ATM machines. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over 50% of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity – and owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here’s a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out almost $500 billion dollars less than before:6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time | MyKCMDuring the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owed was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. With the average home equity now standing at over $190,000, this won’t happen today.

This is nothing like the last time.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned that we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.

Buyer Tips & StrategyMarket TrendsReal Estate Market Stats and Information March 15, 2021

Will the Housing Market Bloom This Spring?

Will the Housing Market Bloom This Spring? | MyKCM

Spring is almost here, and many are wondering what it will bring for the housing market. Even though the pandemic continues on, it’s certain to be very different from the spring we experienced at this time last year. Here’s what a few industry experts have to say about the housing market and how it will bloom this season.

Danielle Hale, Chief Economistrealtor.com:

“Despite early weakness, we expect to see new listings grow in March and April as they traditionally do heading into spring, and last year’s extraordinarily low new listings comparison point will mean year over year gains. One other potential bright spot for would-be homebuyers, new construction, which has risen at a year over year pace of 20% or more for the last few months, will provide additional for-sale inventory relief.”

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist, Zonda:

“Some people will feel comfortable listing their home during the first half of 2021. Others will want to wait until the vaccines are widely distributed. This suggests more inventory will be for sale in late 2021 and into the spring selling season in 2022.”

Freddie Mac:

“Since reaching a low point in January, mortgage rates have risen by more than 30 basis points… However, the rise in mortgage rates over the next couple of months is likely to be more muted in comparison to the last few weeks, and we expect a strong spring sales season.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American:

“As the housing market heads into the spring home buying season, the ongoing supply and demand imbalance all but assures more house price growth…Many find it hard to believe, but housing is actually undervalued in most markets and the gap between house-buying power and sale prices indicates there’s room for further house price growth in the months to come.”

Bottom Line

The experts are very optimistic about the housing market right now. If you pressed pause on your real estate plans over the winter, let’s chat to determine how you can re-engage in the homebuying process this spring.

Buyer Tips & StrategyFirst-Time Home Buyer March 15, 2021

How to Be a Competitive Buyer in Today’s Housing Market [INFOGRAPHIC]

How to Be a Competitive Buyer in Today’s Housing Market [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights

  • With so few houses for sale today, it’s important to be prepared when you’re ready to buy a home.
  • Meeting with your lender early, knowing your must-haves and nice-to-haves, preparing for a bidding war, and keeping your emotions in check are all ways to gain confidence in the homebuying process.
  • If you’re looking for an expert guide to help you navigate today’s lightning-fast housing market, let’s connect today.
Buyer Tips & StrategyFirst-Time Home BuyerSeller Tips & Strategy March 15, 2021

How to Make a Winning Offer on a Home

How to Make a Winning Offer on a Home | MyKCM

Today’s homebuyers are faced with a strong sellers’ market, which means there are a lot of active buyers competing for a relatively low number of available homes. As a result, it’s essential to understand how to make a confident and competitive offer on your dream home. Here are five tips for success in this critical stage of the homebuying process.

1. Listen to Your Real Estate Advisor

An article from Freddie Mac gives direction on making an offer on a home. From the start, it emphasizes how trusted professionals can help you stay focused on the most important things, especially at times when this process can get emotional for buyers:

“Remember to let your homebuying team guide you on your journey, not your emotions. Their support and expertise will keep you from compromising on your must-haves and future financial stability.”

A real estate professional should be the expert guide you lean on for advice when you’re ready to make an offer.

2. Understand Your Finances

Having a complete understanding of your budget and how much house you can afford is essential. The best way to know this is to get pre-approved for a loan early in the homebuying process. Only 44% of today’s prospective homebuyers are planning to apply for pre-approval, so be sure to take this step so you stand out from the crowd. Doing so make it clear to sellers you’re a serious and qualified buyer, and it can give you a competitive edge in a bidding war.

3. Be Prepared to Move Quickly

According to the latest Realtors Confidence Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the average property sold today receives 3.7 offers and is on the market for just 21 days. These are both results of today’s competitive market, showing how important it is to stay agile and alert in your search. As soon as you find the right home for your needs, be prepared to submit an offer as quickly as possible.

4. Make a Fair Offer

It’s only natural to want the best deal you can get on a home. However, Freddie Mac also warns that submitting an offer that’s too low can lead sellers to doubt how serious you are as a buyer. Don’t make an offer that will be tossed out as soon as it’s received. The expertise your agent brings to this part of the process will help you stay competitive:

“Your agent will work with you to make an informed offer based on the market value of the home, the condition of the home and recent home sale prices in the area.”

5. Stay Flexible in Negotiations

After submitting an offer, the seller may accept it, reject it, or counter it with their own changes. In a competitive market, it’s important to stay nimble throughout the negotiation process. You can strengthen your position with an offer that includes flexible move-in dates, a higher price, or minimal contingencies (conditions you set that the seller must meet for the purchase to be finalized). Freddie Mac explains that there are, however, certain contingencies you don’t want to forego:

Resist the temptation to waive the inspection contingency, especially in a hot market or if the home is being sold ‘as-is’, which means the seller won’t pay for repairs. Without an inspection contingency, you could be stuck with a contract on a house you can’t afford to fix.”

Bottom Line

Today’s competitive market makes it more important than ever to make a strong offer on a home. Let’s connect to make sure you rise to the top along the way.

Buyer Tips & StrategyFirst-Time Home BuyerSeller Tips & Strategy February 1, 2021

What’s the Difference between an Appraisal and a Home Inspection?

What’s the Difference between an Appraisal and a Home Inspection? | MyKCM

If you’re planning to buy a home, an appraisal is an important step in the process. It’s a professional evaluation of the market value of the home you’d like to buy. In most cases, an appraisal is ordered by the lender to confirm or verify the value of the home prior to lending a buyer money for the purchase. It’s also a different step in the process from a home inspection, which assesses the condition of the home before you finalize the transaction. Here’s the breakdown of each one and why they’re both important when buying a home.

Home Appraisal

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“A home purchase is typically the largest investment someone will make. Protect yourself by getting your investment appraised! An appraiser will observe the property, analyze the data, and report their findings to their client. For the typical home purchase transaction, the lender usually orders the appraisal to assist in the lender’s decision to provide funds for a mortgage.”

When you apply for a mortgage, an unbiased appraisal (which is required by the lender) is the best way to confirm the value of the home based on the sale price. Regardless of what you’re willing to pay for a house, if you’ll be using a mortgage to fund your purchase, the appraisal will help make sure the bank doesn’t loan you more than what the home is worth.

This is especially critical in today’s sellers’ market where low inventory is driving an increase in bidding wars, which can push home prices upward. When sellers are in a strong position like this, they tend to believe they can set whatever price they want for their house under the assumption that competing buyers will be willing to pay more.

However, the lender will only allow the buyer to borrow based on the value of the home. This is what helps keep home prices in check. If there’s ever any confusion or discrepancy between the appraisal and the sale price, your trusted real estate professional will help you navigate any additional negotiations in the buying process.

Home Inspection

Here’s the key difference between an appraisal and an inspection. MSN explains:

In simplest terms, a home appraisal determines the value of a home, while a home inspection determines the condition of a home.”

The home inspection is a way to determine the current state, safety, and condition of the home before you finalize the sale. If anything is questionable in the inspection process – like the age of the roof, the state of the HVAC system, or just about anything else – you as a buyer have the option to discuss and negotiate any potential issues or repairs with the seller before the transaction is final. Your real estate agent is a key expert to help you through this part of the process.

Bottom Line

The appraisal and the inspection are critical steps when buying a home, and you don’t need to manage them by yourself. Let’s connect today so you have the expert guidance you need to navigate through the entire homebuying process.

Buyer Tips & StrategyMarket TrendsSeller Tips & Strategy February 1, 2021

What Happens When Homeowners Leave Their Forbearance Plans?

What Happens When Homeowners Leave Their Forbearance Plans? | MyKCM

According to the latest report from Black Knight, Inc., a well-respected provider of data and analytics for mortgage companies, 6.48 million households have entered a forbearance plan as a result of financial concerns brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Here’s where these homeowners stand right now:

  • 2,543,000 (39%) are current on their payments and have left the program
  • 625,000 (9%) have paid off their mortgages
  • 434,000 (7%) have negotiated a repayment plan and have left the program
  • 2,254,000 (35%) have extended their original forbearance plan
  • 512,000 (8%) are still in their original forbearance plan
  • 116,000 (2%) have left the program and are still behind on payments

This shows that of the almost 3.72 million homeowners who have left the program, only 116,000 (2%) exited while they were still behind on their payments. There are still 2.77 million borrowers in a forbearance program. No one knows for sure how many of those will become foreclosures. There are, however, three major reasons why most experts believe there will not be a tsunami of foreclosures as we saw during the housing crash over a decade ago:

  1. Almost 30% of borrowers in forbearance are still current on their mortgage payments.
  2. Banks likely don’t want to repeat the mistakes of 2008-2012 when they put large numbers of foreclosures on their books. This time, many will instead negotiate a modification plan with the borrower, which will enable households to maintain ownership of the home.
  3. With the significant equity homeowners have today, many will be able to sell instead of going into foreclosure.

Will there be foreclosures coming to the market? Yes. There are hundreds of thousands of foreclosures in this country each year. People experience economic hardships, and in some cases, are not able to meet their mortgage obligations.

Here’s the breakdown of new foreclosures over the last three years, prior to the pandemic:

  • 2017: 314,220
  • 2018: 279,040
  • 2019: 277,520

Through the first three quarters of 2020 (the latest data available), there were only 114,780 new foreclosures. If 10% of those currently in forbearance go to foreclosure, 275,000 foreclosures would be added to the market in 2021. That would be an average year as the numbers above show.

What happens if the number is more than 10%?

If we do experience a higher foreclosure rate from those in forbearance, most experts believe the current housing market will easily absorb the excess inventory. We entered 2020 with 1,210,000 single-family homes available for purchase. At the time, that was low and problematic. The market was experiencing high buyer demand, and we needed more houses to meet that demand. We’re now entering 2021 with 320,000 fewer homes for sale, while buyer demand remains extremely strong. This means the housing market has the capacity to soak up a lot of inventory.

Bottom Line

There will be more foreclosures entering the market later this year, especially compared to the record-low numbers in 2020. However, the market will be able to handle the increase as buyer demand remains strong.

Buyer Tips & StrategyMarket TrendsSeller Tips & Strategy February 1, 2021

What Record-Low Housing Inventory Means for You

What Record-Low Housing Inventory Means for You | MyKCM

The real estate market is expected to do very well in 2021, with mortgage rates that are hovering at historic lows and forecasted by experts to remain favorable throughout the year. One challenge to the housing industry, however, is the lack of homes available for sale today. Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report, which shows that the inventory of homes for sale is currently at an all-time low. The report explains:

“Total housing inventory at the end of December totaled 1.07 million units, down 16.4% from November and down 23% from one year ago (1.39 million). Unsold inventory sits at an all-time low 1.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 2.3 months in November and down from the 3.0-month figure recorded in December 2019. NAR first began tracking the single-family home supply in 1982.”
(See graph below):

What Record-Low Housing Inventory Means for You | MyKCM

What Does This Mean for You?

If You’re a Buyer:

Be patient during your home search. It may take time to find a home you love. Once you do, however, be ready to move forward quickly. Get pre-approved for a mortgage, be prepared to make a competitive offer from the start, and know that a shortage in inventory could mean you’ll enter a bidding war. Calculate just how far you’re willing to go to secure a home and lean on your real estate professional as an expert guide along the way. The good news is, more inventory is likely headed to the market soon, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, notes:

“To their credit, homebuilders and construction companies have increased efforts to build, with housing starts hitting an annual rate of near 1.7 million in December, with more focus on single-family homes…However, it will take vigorous new home construction in 2021 and in 2022 to adequately furnish the market to properly meet the demand.”

If You’re a Seller:

Realize that, in some ways, you’re in the driver’s seat. When there’s a shortage of an item at the same time there’s a strong demand for it, the seller is in a good position to negotiate the best possible terms. Whether it’s the price, moving date, possible repairs, or anything else, you’ll be able to request more from a potential purchaser at a time like this – especially if you have multiple interested buyers. Don’t be unreasonable, but understand you probably have the upper hand.

Bottom Line

The housing market will remain strong throughout 2021. Know what that means for you, whether you’re buying, selling, or doing both.

Buyer Tips & StrategyFirst-Time Home BuyerSeller Tips & Strategy February 1, 2021

Is Right Now the Right Time to Sell? [INFOGRAPHIC]

Is Right Now the Right Time to Sell? [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights

  • If you’re on the fence about selling your house, now is a great time to take advantage of sky-high demand, low supply, and fierce buyer competition.
  • With buyer demand rising and historically low inventory for sale, if you’re in a position to move, your house may really stand out from the crowd.
  • Let’s connect today to get your listing process underway.
Buyer Tips & StrategyFirst-Time Home BuyerSeller Tips & Strategy February 1, 2021

Turn to an Expert for the Best Advice, Not Perfect Advice

Turn to an Expert for the Best Advice, Not Perfect Advice | MyKCM

As we approach the anniversary of the hardships we’ve faced through this pandemic and the subsequent recession, it’s normal to reflect on everything that’s changed and wonder what’s ahead for 2021. While there are signs of economic recovery as vaccines are being issued, we still have a long way to go. It’s at times like these we want exact information about anything we’re doing. That information brings knowledge, and this gives us a sense of relief and comfort in uncertain times.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home today, the same need for information is very real. But, because it’s such a big step in our lives, that desire for clear information is even greater in the homebuying or selling process. Given the current level of overall anxiety, we want that advice to be truly perfect. The challenge is, no one can give you “perfect” advice. Experts can, however, give you the best advice possible.

Let’s say you need an attorney, so you seek out an expert in the type of law required for your case. When you go to her office, she won’t immediately tell you how the case is going to end or how the judge or jury will rule. If she could, that would be perfect advice. What a good attorney can do, however, is discuss with you the most effective strategies you can take. She may recommend one or two approaches she believes will be best for your case.

She’ll then leave you to make the decision on which option you want to pursue. Once you decide, she can help you put a plan together based on the facts at hand. She’ll help you achieve the best possible resolution and make whatever modifications in the strategy are necessary to guarantee that outcome. That’s an example of the best advice possible.

The role of a real estate professional is just like the role of a lawyer. An agent can’t give you perfect advice because it’s impossible to know exactly what’s going to happen throughout the transaction – especially in this market.

An agent can, however, give you the best advice possible based on the information and situation at hand, guiding you through the process to help you make the necessary adjustments and best decisions along the way. An agent will lead you to the best offer available. That’s exactly what you want and deserve.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of buying or selling this year, let’s connect to make sure you get the best advice possible.

Commercial December 10, 2020

California Issues Guidelines for More Pandemic-Related Retail Openings

Rules Also Cover Manufacturing, Logistics and Other ‘Low Risk’ Locations Serving Stores

California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced guidelines allowing low-risk retail and industrial facilities to reopen starting Friday. (Gage Skidmore/Flickr)California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced guidelines allowing low-risk retail and industrial facilities to reopen starting Friday. (Gage Skidmore/Flickr)

California officials issued second-stage guidelines intended to put more retail, logistics and manufacturing companies on a path to post-coronavirus pandemic normalcy starting Friday, allowing them to reopen with necessary site modifications and precautions.

Guidelines announced by Gov. Gavin Newsom, and posted on the state’s pandemic response website, are similar to those issued earlier for businesses that were deemed essential in the state’s first phase of response to the virus, such as grocery stores, drugstores, banks and gas stations.

Those businesses are required to provide the high levels of sanitation, social distancing and other protocols to try to prevent the spread of the virus. If they follow the same standards, more businesses deemed “low risk” for virus transmission can open for business Friday, including retailers selling clothing, sporting goods, toys, books, music and flowers. The same state standards would generally also apply to manufacturing, warehouse and other logistics businesses serving retail customers that could be eligible to begin to reopen.

The new guidelines are the first in a series that are scheduled to be issued in coming weeks to help the 70% of businesses in California’s economy that are still reeling from stay-at-home orders issued by the state in mid-March. Newsom said practices will be subject to adjustment over the course of a total of four phases of reopenings that could play out over the course of several months.

“This is not etched in stone,” Newsom said of the latest guidelines. “We want to continue to work with people across sectors and address unintended and not just intended consequences of these meaningful modifications of the stay-at-home order.”

Since many retailers are small businesses, owners will be left to decide their own opening timelines based on the extent to which they are able to invest in the personnel and other expenses required to enforce social distancing, hygiene and other elements already being carried out by essential businesses such as supermarkets.

For instance, the state’s new retail guidelines call for businesses that open to provide temperature or symptom screenings for all workers at the beginning of their shifts and for any work-related personnel entering the facility. Protective gear should be supplied by the business to cashiers, baggers and other workers with “regular and repeated interaction with customers.”

The guidelines encourage the use of pickup and delivery services like those already being used by many stores and restaurants to minimize in-store contact and maintain social distancing. The rules acknowledge that may not be an option for all types of retailers, because of the ways in which people browse and shop depending on the product.

The retail guidelines call for closing in-store bars, bulk-bin options and public seating areas, and also for discontinuing product sampling.

Slow Recovery

While many retailers may be legally able to open their doors, some may still wait to do so, according to brokers. The restrictions may still pose logistical and financial challenges that could not end up being worth the effort.

“For clothing stores or shoe stores or others where there is a need to try things on and get the right sizing or fit, there isn’t any advantage to have people pick up curbside,” Mike Moser, partner in San Diego-based brokerage firm Retail lnsite, told CoStar News.

“And for shops where people browse through and purchase, the thought that these retailers are going to be able to do any business with a curbside pickup isn’t a solution that helps nor does it make that much sense,” Moser said.

Under the state guidelines, retailers will be able to operate at no more than 50% of normal capacity, and are advised to be “prepared to queue customers outside while still maintaining physical distance, including the use of visual cues.” In grocery stores, for instance, those cues have included floor markings intended to keep customers six feet apart in checkout lines.

Moser said small retailers want to open for business in a safe manner, but many may decide to wait because those modifications will not pay off when store traffic is lingering between 25% and 50% of normal capacity. Operators have staffing, inventory replenishment and other costs to consider in addition to the coronavirus-related modifications.

Newsom said another set of openings for the current second phase is being worked out, and details are expected to be announced in coming weeks for modified on-site restaurant dining, as well as the operating of outdoor museums, car washes and other low-risk businesses.

A return to more crowded settings such as office buildings, gyms and bars is not likely to occur until the third phase in California, and full operating of most types of businesses and public spaces won’t happen until the fourth phase. Newsom said the state is currently allowing counties to proceed faster with openings than the state if they can certify progress in areas such as infection and death declines, and increases in testing for the virus.

Officials of some hard-hit cities, including San Francisco and Los Angeles, have already said they will be proceeding slower than California as a whole when it comes to current and future business openings.

The Commerce Department reported that nationwide retail sales dropped 8.7% from a year ago in March, the sharpest plunge on record, with apparel store sales down 50% and restaurants and bars dropping 26%,

April U.S. retail figures are not yet available but are likely to show steeper declines, reflecting a full month of retail closings compared with March’s half month.

Commercial December 10, 2020

Sublease Availability in San Francisco Jumps By 1 Million Square Feet in 2020

CoStar Insight: Further Rise Expected as Tech Firms Slash Payrolls

If you’re currently looking for office space in San Francisco, there’s a good probability that you’ll be considering a sublease option. Roughly 30% of the available space in the market is listed for sublease from an existing or prior tenant, rather than from a landlord directly.

In January, CoStar was tracking just over 5 million square feet of available sublease space in San Francisco. As of early May, sublease availability jumped another 1 million square feet, to over 6 million square feet total, representing roughly 3.3% of total market inventory. By comparison, direct space availability totals more than 14 million square feet, or 7.8% of total inventory. Largely driven by the recent rise of sublease space, total availability in the market has now eclipsed 11%.

San Francisco now has the highest sublease availability rate across the country, significantly outpacing the second place San Jose market, where 2.4% of existing inventory is available for sublease. San Jose had maintained its ranking as the country’s most saturated market for sublease availability from the second quarter of 2017 through the third quarter of 2019, which was partially driven by consolidations in the semiconductor industry. But sublease availability in San Jose steadily declined in 2018 and 2019, while it has recently spiked in San Francisco.

The rise of sublease listings in San Francisco can largely be attributed to cost-sensitive businesses leaving the market, as well as technology tenants banking space for future growth or coming to the realization that they will not fulfill aggressive growth plans. And now, victims of the coronavirus pandemic’s shelter-in-place and social distancing measures have begun to shed space as well.

New listings in the market include 55 Hawthorne St., where KeepTruckin has offered 34,108 square feet for sublease. The unicorn startup that helps truck drivers log hours laid off 349 employees in April, or 18% of its global workforce.

Credit Karma moved into the Phelan building at 760 Market St. in 2014, and expanded in 2017 to a footprint spanning 121,000 square feet. In February, the company listed two floors for sublease, totaling 24,320 square feet.

Macy’s announced plans to close its tech offices in San Francisco and is moving positions to New York to streamline operations. Accordingly, Macy’s.com listed its office at 680 Folsom St. for sublease in January. The eight vacant floors total 272,401 square feet, encompassing half of the building. Macy’s employed 880 full-time workers and about 200 contractors in the building.

At 795 Folsom St., the defunct robotics-enabled Zume Pizza has offered 64,177 square feet for sublease. The start-up cut 80 San Francisco-based positions in January and shut down pizza delivery operations after four years in business.

With tech firms in hard-hit segments of the economy slashing jobs and small businesses clamoring to obtain payroll protection loans to stay afloat through the recession, it’s likely that sublease space will continue to flood the market in the year ahead.

In the first week of May alone, Airbnb announced the termination of 1,900 employees, or roughly one-quarter of its workforce, and Uber said it is slashing 3,700 positions, or 14% of its workforce, while Juul recently announced plans to move out of the city and cut roughly 25% of its U.S. staff of 1,800. All three firms expanded offices in the city substantially during the expansion cycle.

Lyft likewise announced cuts of 982 one week earlier, and Yelp slashed 1,000 jobs in early April. Opendoor and Eventbrite cut 600 and 500 jobs, respectively, last month.

Exacerbating the effect that severe job losses and business failures will have on demand for space in the San Francisco office market, a CoreNet Global survey conducted between April 22th and 27th found that 69% of end users surveyed say that their company’s real estate footprint will shrink as a result of increased work from home. With excess space on hand, even tenants that survive the recession may consider subletting portions of their offices to others in order to recoup costs.

Commercial December 10, 2020

Coronavirus Reveals the Weak Links in Global Supply Chains

CoStar Insight: Why China Stands to Lose and US Stands to Benefit in the Wake of COVID-19

Most manufacturing is expected to reshore to other parts of Asia post-pandemic, a factor that will help keep steady port traffic in West Coast markets such as Los Angeles, Seattle and Oakland. (iStock)Most manufacturing is expected to reshore to other parts of Asia post-pandemic, a factor that will help keep steady port traffic in West Coast markets such as Los Angeles, Seattle and Oakland. (iStock)

The COVID-19 crisis has profoundly affected global economies in an unprecedented way, putting millions out of work all at once, slowing commerce to a crawl and wreaking havoc on equity markets. And yet the effects of the pandemic may also prove instructive, illustrating plainly some of the systemic weaknesses and deficiencies that were papered over and unexposed during the steady economic growth of the most recent expansion.

In particular, supply chains of unwieldy length depending solely on Chinese manufacturing and ports have shown themselves to be extraordinarily brittle. Also, confidence in the trustworthiness of the Chinese government after initial assurances minimizing the severity of the COVID-19 crisis was found to be misplaced, resulting in an erosion of trust after the government reversed its previous stance and forced manufacturers to shut down operations in January.

Given the lessons being swiftly taught worldwide by breakdowns in supply chains for businesses and consumers alike, there are ramifications that should have long-lasting and far-reaching impacts for manufacturers, domestic markets and ultimately industrial investors looking to capitalize on the shifting composition of supply chain management.

Although the true extent of the frailty inherent in supply chains built without redundancies may just be coming to light, it is likely that the current state of the global economy may only exacerbate trends that were already taking place. Spurred by a number of concerns, including rising wages, total cost considerations and an administration driving an extended trade war with China, the average monthly value of imports from China fell more than 6% between 2015 and 2019, a drop of nearly $2.6 billion.

Over the same period, U.S. imports from other Asian countries, the European Union and Mexico all grew by double-digit percentages, with Vietnam in particular appearing to pick up a great deal of the slack afforded by China’s diminished export numbers. The conclusion appears certain: China cannot remain the world’s sole factory for the long term, and numerous other destinations look set to reap the rewards.

The most likely outcome of the shakeup prompted by the COVID-19 outbreak is a greater focus on building redundancies and increased resiliency into supply chains at all levels. No single country is likely to benefit in a lopsided manner from firms moving production out of China. Instead, a combination of reshoring, which involves shifting operations either to other Asian nations with low-cost labor pools or to regional trading partners like Mexico or Canada, and onshoring a smaller amount of production back to the U.S., will allow companies to diversify supply chains and mitigate the supply risk associated with concentrating in a single nation.

For companies that have chosen to onshore production after a sustained period using offshore suppliers, a number of negative factors related to supply chains prompted their return. Though quality of work and necessity for rework was cited a quarter of the time among the top 10 reasons for abandoning an offshoring strategy, freight costs, delivery or inventory concerns and supply chain interruptions made up 40% of the negatives associated with the practice, according to a 2018 study by Reshoring Initiative.

Similarly, among the benefits cited by respondents to the study were lead times, supply chain optimization and proximity to market, altogether accounting for 34% of the top 10 positives for onshoring production.

It should be noted that most onshored manufacturing is often highly complex, high-value-add work producing goods such as computer, electronics, auto and heavy equipment. This type of manufacturing is also extensively automated, and requires higher skilled workers for the jobs that do end up being created.

A distinct lack of those highly skilled workers domestically limits the amount of offshore jobs that are likely to return onshore from places like China. In contrast, manufacturing goods that require low-skilled labor and are difficult to automate constitute the bulk of production being reshored elsewhere, and are almost certainly not going to return to the U.S.

For industrial investors domestically, an added benefit may be found in inventory shortages created by the crisis. For decades, one prevailing motivation for supply chains was suppressing costs through just-in-time strategies, implementing push-pull management or other ways to reduce inventory and associated holding costs. Inventory-to-sales ratios dropped across the board prior to the Great Recession, most precipitously for manufacturers. The relatively recent rise in e-commerce forced a moderate rise in inventories, though remaining well below the ratios of the 1990s and early 2000s.

Now, however, with widespread demand causing unforeseen shortages for consumer goods, intermediate goods and raw materials alike, it is not unreasonable to expect that firms at a number of levels in the supply chain will see the added benefit of increasing inventories in the short or medium term, despite the associated storage costs. That should contribute to minor increased demand for warehouse space once economies begin to reopen, and will likely push average inventory to sales ratios above 1.4 for the manufacturing and retail segments of the market.

Given that this is largely in response to COVID-19, a “black swan” occurrence, companies are unlikely to sustain heightened inventory carrying costs permanently. Rather, this should prove to be a one-time boost for the segment when entering the next expansionary cycle and then dissipate along with the psychological effects of current shortages.

There are a number of considerations for investors targeting markets that are likely to experience tailwinds from reshoring and potential onshoring of manufacturing from China. Most manufacturing is expected to reshore to other parts of Asia, a factor that will help keep steady port traffic in West Coast markets such as Los Angeles, Seattle and Oakland, and East Coast ports such as New York, Norfolk, Savannah and Jacksonville should see similar returns to stability in the numbers of imported TEUs, or 20-foot-equivalent units, a measurement used in the maritime industry to record international containerized freight volumes.

Increased manufacturing activity in Mexico could likewise boost industrial demand in Los Angeles and the nearby Inland Empire, but could also provide additional demand in Texas markets and eastern ports.

For markets likely to experience smaller boosts from onshoring of overseas production, it’s evident from jobs created from onshoring operations between 2010 and 2018 that Southern markets are heavily favored given their lower costs for labor, the often considerable subsidies made available by these states and business-friendly policies that eschew red tape and barriers to entry. Additionally, the same states are usually equally popular for foreign manufacturers looking to locate manufacturing facilities in the U.S. market.

Though industrial investors in states attractive to firms considering onshoring will benefit directly from increases in the local manufacturing base, the reality of increased reshoring rather than onshoring should reinforce already established national and regional distribution hubs over the longer term, allowing crucial increased stability of supply chains globally and helping to mitigate risk for industrial assets across the U.S. from future disruption.

While this may be of little help in the current crisis, it is reason for cautious optimism for industrial investors looking ahead to a return to economic normalcy.

Commercial December 10, 2020

Plunge in Bay Area Leasing Activity Highlights Challenges Moving Forward

CoStar Insight: Weekly Figures Showcases Coronavirus’ Effect on Retail Sector

The unprecedented drop seen in new leasing activity around the San Francisco Bay Area is hardly surprising given the limitation on the population under the current shelter-in-place order, which went into effect on March 17 and closed all non-essential businesses, sending shockwaves through the retail industry.

In the commercial property sector, the inability to have physical property tours limits the ability of landlords and brokers to showcase available retail spaces. New retail tenants are likely tentative, given the uncertain outlook for an economic recovery and a return to relatively normal social interactions and commercial consumption levels. And owners are struggling with the ramifications of lost rental revenue and the challenges in keeping occupancy rates up in buildings, potentially attempting to renew existing tenants early.

In an analysis of new retail leasing in seven Bay Area metropolitan areas, including San Francisco, San Jose, East Bay, San Rafael, Santa Rosa, Napa and Vallejo-Fairfield, leasing volume has plummeted to historically low levels. The seven weeks from mid-March to the end of April saw average weekly leasing activity of just 36,000 square feet. To give that figure further context, the average weekly leasing volume since 2007 across the Bay Area is over 120,000 square feet.

While it isn’t unexpected that newly signed leases have been almost non-existent in recent weeks, it does highlight yet another obstacle the retail property sector is going to have to overcome. Businesses will close as a result of the current economic downturn, leaving more vacant space in need of new tenants. The stark slowdown in leasing activity could leave a gap in new demand entering the market just as vacancies start to increase, exacerbating increases in near term vacancy rates. And restarting the leasing engine will be a crucial factor in gaining some positive momentum in the retail property market.

The effect on retail rents is expected to be negative as well. Rising vacancies and a strong pullback in demand should result in declining rental rates as owners look to fill empty retail spaces. It will be worth keeping a close eye on available space in the coming months. Across the Bay Area, availability is below 5% on average, with availability registering 5% in the East Bay, 4% in San Jose, and just over 4% in San Francisco.

From a slightly more optimistic perspective, the Bay Area retail market performed relatively well through the previous economic expansion period following the Great Recession. Strong economic and population growth in the Bay Area, along with limited supply pressure, helped to maintain healthy market fundamentals. And the Bay Area is forecasted to fare better from an employment and economic growth perspective than many other areas of the country in the coming years. So, while challenges are abundant for the retail sector, Bay Area properties may be able to outperform national trends through the current downturn.

Commercial December 10, 2020

Retail Loan-To-Value Levels On Steadier Footing Heading Into Economic Downturn

CoStar Insight: Retail Properties Facing Major Headwinds, But Debt Levels Are Lower Than Just Before Financial Crisis

Retail investors and lenders have been far more conservative in recent years compared to the years leading into the Great Recession. (CoStar)Retail investors and lenders have been far more conservative in recent years compared to the years leading into the Great Recession. (CoStar)

Retail properties are expected to have the most challenging road forward due to the acute effects that the coronavirus pandemic is having on the sector. Shelter-in-place orders, which began in mid-March in the San Francisco Bay Area, have been extended through the end of May, placing significant pressure on retail property incomes.

In the most recent March retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, total retail sales retreated 8.7% across the United States, the worst monthly decline since the data became available in 1992. The hardest hit retail sector was clothing stores, which saw sales decline by 50%, according to the report. And furniture, bars and restaurants, and sporting goods all saw sales declines of over 20%.

Given the stress that retail property financials are undergoing, it is worth looking at leverage levels in some of the larger retail property sales in recent years compared to the levels seen prior to the Great Recession of 2008.

The loan-to-value analysis takes a broad, high-level look at the 40 largest transactions across the San Francisco, South Bay/San Jose and East Bay/Oakland metropolitan areas, where CoStar has data on loan amounts. Despite the broad view, it does give insight into the comparative lending trends for retail properties, and the relative risk for property loans compared to recent history.

Comparing the relative ratio of loan-to-value figures — the ratio of a property’s sales value to the amount the buyer financed on the deal — shows that there were significantly higher leverage levels undertaken in retail asset purchases during 2006-2007 compared to 2018-2019.

In 2006-2007 over 10% of the 40 largest retail transactions in which CoStar captured loan financing with LTV ratio’s over 80%, compared to 0 from 2018-2019. Properties with LTVs between 60% and 80% represented 45% of the sales in 2006-2007 compared to just 20% in 2018-2019. And while sales with LTVs lower than 60% accounted for 45% of retail sales from 2006-2007, 80% of the sales in 2018-2019 had LTVs 60% or below.

Clearly, retail investors and lenders have been far more conservative in recent years compared to the years leading into the Great Recession. And landlords appear to have more sustainable mortgage payments relative to their property’s net operating incomes.

This is to be expected, given changes in the financial industry stemming from the financial crisis and changes in consumer behavior as e-commerce has risen significantly in popularity. Retail properties will need all the help they can get to avoid a wave of distressed selling, which would further damage a sector already facing a number of major headwinds moving forward.

Commercial December 10, 2020

California Moves to Let Next Wave of Retailers Reopen in Pandemic

Governor: Clothing, Sporting Goods, Flower Stores to Sell Items Starting Friday

Gov. Gavin Newsom said counties in California are being given more leeway to decide the pace of business openings based on local circumstances, provided they file contingency plans with the state. (Getty Images)Gov. Gavin Newsom said counties in California are being given more leeway to decide the pace of business openings based on local circumstances, provided they file contingency plans with the state. (Getty Images)

Gov. Gavin Newsom said California can begin moving into a second phase of business openings starting as early as Friday, allowing for stores that sell items such as clothing, sporting goods, toys, books, music, and flowers to begin to operate primarily through pickup services if modifications are made to their real estate.

The stores that permitted to reopen late this week will be required to modify their locations but details for low risk businesses, along with the manufacturing and logistics providers who serve those retailers, are expected be issued Thursday.

The announcement comes as the state is in its seventh week of a stay-at-home mandate, which is increasingly facing opposition and protests by some cities and residents as the economy sags and unemployment increases.

Newsom said Monday during his daily press briefing that the decision to move into the upcoming phase of new “low risk” retail openings was based on the criteria he laid out last month for his phased reopening plan, based on factors including the state’s and cities’ progress with medical preparedness, testing and contact tracing for the spread of the virus.

“This is a very positive sign and it’s happened only for one reason: The data says it can happen,” Newsom said.

The nation’s most populous state, California was among the first states to issue at stay-at-home order in response to the coronavirus in mid-March. Its economy, one of the largest in the world, has been hard hit by the ripple effects of the closing of nonessential businesses, increasing unemployment and people staying at home. In the past couple weeks, protesters have gathered in Sacramento and Orange County cities including Huntington Beach calling for the order to be lifted. A few cities have defied orders, lifting some restrictions and opening some public areas such as beaches.

Newsom has said he remains focused on stemming the spread of the virus and plans to reopen the state in phases based on “facts and data, not ideology.”

This week’s openings do not include business offices, sit-down dining establishments, or shopping malls, which have all been closed for the past several weeks by the coronavirus pandemic, the governor said. More types of businesses are expected to be included in a later part of Phase 2 openings, which are also expected to be decided based on the virus data and preparedness factors.

Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said the state plans to issue guidelines for allowing certain counties and other regions not hit hard by the coronavirus to speed up openings of other types of businesses, provided they submit contingency plans in advance to the state.

Newsom said those lesser-hit counties could get more leeway in opening certain hospitality-related businesses, such as hotels and restaurants, which have been among the hardest-hit businesses in terms of closings and job losses.

The governor said further openings depend on Calfornians feeling safe and confident enough to enter these businesses, even with the proper safeguards. Governments in hard-hit areas including the San Francisco Bay Area have been granted the right to maintain tougher standards apart from state relaxations where necessary.

Newsom did not provide a timetable for what would be a next wave of new statewide business openings during the current second phase, with an eventual statewide third phase to include more relaxed restrictions for places such as offices, gyms, bars, salons and other types of service businesses that have the most user interaction.

Ryan Patap, director of market analytics for CoStar Group in Los Angeles, said Monday’s announcement marked a “nice beginning” for opening up the state beyond the essential businesses currently in operation, but California remains a long way from seeing positive demand for retail real estate make a comeback.

“The environment for brick-and-mortar retail remains highly uncertain,” Patap said. “Even if allowed, how many consumers will be fearful of leaving their home to patronize retailers? Even if stores see customers come back, will retailers generate sufficient sales to justify staying open?”

Retailer confidence at this point appears to be as much an unknown as consumers’ attitudes toward returning to these businesses.

“Will we have another outbreak in which we need to shut down again?” Patap added. “These are only a few of the questions that must currently be going through retailers’ heads. What retailer is going to commit to a new lease?”

Posted on May 26, 2020 at 4:59 pm
Marcel Calderon | Posted in Commercial
Uncategorized July 8, 2020

Bay Area Economic & Housing Market Update